Shape of the Yield Curve May Be Best Economic Indicator

bigstock Stock Market Analysis 570645Of all the indicators analysts watch to guage where we are in the economic and market cycle, the bond market - and more specifically the shape of the yield curve - gets it right more often than any other.

The Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco recently noted "Every recession in the last 60 years was preceded by a negative term spread, that is, an inverted yield curve." The current shape of the yield curve is telling us what we already know: that we are not at the end of the cycle but are getting closer. The cycle likely still has room to run. 

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